Heat pump vs gas boiler — the numbers, and every grant that changes them

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Heat pump vs gas boiler: a 1976-1990 terraced house

A worked example with this building's own numbers, not an average. Everything below is calculated from the assumptions listed with it, and you can change any of them in the calculator.

Gas boiler now
£1,218
Heat pump
£985
Difference per year
£233
Simple payback
23.6 yrs
Gas boiler now
£1,218
Heat pump
£985

Assumptions behind these figures

  • House: terraced house, 1976-1990, 85 m²
  • Space-heat demand as found 115 kWh/m²/yr
  • SCOP 3.4 @ 45 °C
  • Assumed existing boiler efficiency 82 %
  • Ofgem energy price cap, 1 July – 30 September 2026 (direct debit, average). Oil/LPG/coal are editable estimates, not primary-sourced.
  • Capital cost £13,000
  • Simple payback: no discount rate, no fuel-price inflation, no maintenance difference. Figures are calculations, not quotes.

Fabric and demand

Treated floor area85 m²
Space-heat demand as found115 kWh/m²/yr
Annual space heating8,309 kWh
Hot water1,800 kWh
Total delivered heat10,109 kWh
Implied heat loss4.6 kW
Assumed design flow temperature45 °C
Assumed SCOP3.4
Assumed existing boiler efficiency82 %

How these numbers were produced

  1. Delivered heat needed: 8,309 kWh (space) + 1,800 kWh (hot water) = 10,109 kWh
  2. Fuel energy at 82 % seasonal efficiency: 10,109 ÷ 0.82 = 12,328 kWh
  3. Current annual cost: 12,328 kWh × £0.0733 + £315 standing charges = £1,218
  4. Heat pump electricity: 10,109 kWh ÷ SCOP 3.4 = 2,973 kWh
  5. Heat pump annual cost: 2,973 kWh × £0.2611 + £209 standing charge = £985
  6. Running-cost difference: £1,218 − £985 = £233

Investment and payback

Installed cost, typical air source£13,000
Grant−£7,500
Net capital cost£5,500
Annual running-cost saving£233
Simple payback23.6 years

Boiler Upgrade Scheme, £7,500 (air source)

What actually decides it in this house

45 °C puts the SCOP around 3.4 — very close to break-even against gas, and comfortably ahead of oil, LPG or direct electric. The marginal radiator work to get here is usually cheaper than the running-cost difference over ten years.

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