Heat pump vs gas boiler — the numbers, and every grant that changes them

HeatPumpSwitch › By house type › a 1991-2002 semi-detached house

Heat pump vs gas boiler: a 1991-2002 semi-detached house

A worked example with this building's own numbers, not an average. Everything below is calculated from the assumptions listed with it, and you can change any of them in the calculator.

Gas boiler now
£1,216
Heat pump
£1,040
Difference per year
£176
Simple payback
31.2 yrs
Gas boiler now
£1,216
Heat pump
£1,040

Assumptions behind these figures

  • House: semi-detached house, 1991-2002, 95 m²
  • Space-heat demand as found 95 kWh/m²/yr
  • SCOP 3.4 @ 45 °C
  • Assumed existing boiler efficiency 88 %
  • Ofgem energy price cap, 1 July – 30 September 2026 (direct debit, average). Oil/LPG/coal are editable estimates, not primary-sourced.
  • Capital cost £13,000
  • Simple payback: no discount rate, no fuel-price inflation, no maintenance difference. Figures are calculations, not quotes.

Fabric and demand

Treated floor area95 m²
Space-heat demand as found95 kWh/m²/yr
Annual space heating9,025 kWh
Hot water1,800 kWh
Total delivered heat10,825 kWh
Implied heat loss5.0 kW
Assumed design flow temperature45 °C
Assumed SCOP3.4
Assumed existing boiler efficiency88 %

How these numbers were produced

  1. Delivered heat needed: 9,025 kWh (space) + 1,800 kWh (hot water) = 10,825 kWh
  2. Fuel energy at 88 % seasonal efficiency: 10,825 ÷ 0.88 = 12,301 kWh
  3. Current annual cost: 12,301 kWh × £0.0733 + £315 standing charges = £1,216
  4. Heat pump electricity: 10,825 kWh ÷ SCOP 3.4 = 3,184 kWh
  5. Heat pump annual cost: 3,184 kWh × £0.2611 + £209 standing charge = £1,040
  6. Running-cost difference: £1,216 − £1,040 = £176

Investment and payback

Installed cost, typical air source£13,000
Grant−£7,500
Net capital cost£5,500
Annual running-cost saving£176
Simple payback31.2 years

Boiler Upgrade Scheme, £7,500 (air source)

What actually decides it in this house

45 °C puts the SCOP around 3.4 — very close to break-even against gas, and comfortably ahead of oil, LPG or direct electric. The marginal radiator work to get here is usually cheaper than the running-cost difference over ten years.

Advertising

Get quotes for your property

Compare at least three installers. Ask each one for the heat-loss calculation and the design flow temperature in writing — that number decides your running cost more than the brand on the box.

Ad. If you request a quote through this link we may be paid a commission by the installer. It does not change your price, and we do not rank companies by how much they pay.

Similar houses

All 30 house types · Calculator · Grants · Methodology