Heat pump vs gas boiler — the numbers, and every grant that changes them

HeatPumpSwitch › By house type › a pre-1919 semi-detached house

Heat pump vs gas boiler: a pre-1919 semi-detached house

A worked example with this building's own numbers, not an average. Everything below is calculated from the assumptions listed with it, and you can change any of them in the calculator.

Gas boiler now
£2,091
Heat pump
£1,971
Difference per year
£120
Simple payback
46.0 yrs
Gas boiler now
£2,091
Heat pump
£1,971

Assumptions behind these figures

  • House: semi-detached house, pre-1919, 95 m²
  • Space-heat demand as found 180 kWh/m²/yr
  • SCOP 2.8 @ 55 °C
  • Assumed existing boiler efficiency 78 %
  • Ofgem energy price cap, 1 July – 30 September 2026 (direct debit, average). Oil/LPG/coal are editable estimates, not primary-sourced.
  • Capital cost £13,000
  • Simple payback: no discount rate, no fuel-price inflation, no maintenance difference. Figures are calculations, not quotes.

Fabric and demand

Treated floor area95 m²
Space-heat demand as found180 kWh/m²/yr
Annual space heating17,100 kWh
Hot water1,800 kWh
Total delivered heat18,900 kWh
Implied heat loss9.5 kW
Assumed design flow temperature55 °C
Assumed SCOP2.8
Assumed existing boiler efficiency78 %

How these numbers were produced

  1. Delivered heat needed: 17,100 kWh (space) + 1,800 kWh (hot water) = 18,900 kWh
  2. Fuel energy at 78 % seasonal efficiency: 18,900 ÷ 0.78 = 24,231 kWh
  3. Current annual cost: 24,231 kWh × £0.0733 + £315 standing charges = £2,091
  4. Heat pump electricity: 18,900 kWh ÷ SCOP 2.8 = 6,750 kWh
  5. Heat pump annual cost: 6,750 kWh × £0.2611 + £209 standing charge = £1,971
  6. Running-cost difference: £2,091 − £1,971 = £120

Investment and payback

Installed cost, typical air source£13,000
Grant−£7,500
Net capital cost£5,500
Annual running-cost saving£120
Simple payback46.0 years

Boiler Upgrade Scheme, £7,500 (air source)

What actually decides it in this house

This house is the hard case. At a 55 °C design flow temperature the SCOP lands near 2.8, which is below the 3.6 break-even against gas at the July 2026 cap. A heat pump here costs more to run than a condensing boiler unless you either move to a heat pump electricity tariff or bring the flow temperature down — which means insulation, bigger radiators, or both.

Advertising

Get quotes for your property

Compare at least three installers. Ask each one for the heat-loss calculation and the design flow temperature in writing — that number decides your running cost more than the brand on the box.

Ad. If you request a quote through this link we may be paid a commission by the installer. It does not change your price, and we do not rank companies by how much they pay.

Similar houses

All 30 house types · Calculator · Grants · Methodology